Understanding the Problem Tree Structure

The Basic Framework

Problem Tree Analysis uses the metaphor of a tree to organize your understanding of a social challenge. It's simple, visual, and powerful:

graph TB
    %% EFFECTS (Branches) - What happens because the problem exists
    E1["🌿 EFFECT 1<br/>Immediate Impact"]
    E2["🌿 EFFECT 2<br/>Medium-term Impact"]
    E3["🌿 EFFECT 3<br/>Long-term Impact"]

    %% CORE PROBLEM (Trunk) - The central issue
    CP["🌳 CORE PROBLEM<br/>The central issue your<br/>project will address"]

    %% ROOT CAUSES (Roots) - Why the problem exists
    RC1["🌱 ROOT CAUSE 1<br/>Direct Cause"]
    RC2["🌱 ROOT CAUSE 2<br/>Direct Cause"]
    RC3["🌱 ROOT CAUSE 3<br/>Direct Cause"]

    %% Underlying causes (deeper roots)
    UC1["🌱 Underlying<br/>Cause 1.1"]
    UC2["🌱 Underlying<br/>Cause 1.2"]
    UC3["🌱 Underlying<br/>Cause 2.1"]
    UC4["🌱 Underlying<br/>Cause 3.1"]

    %% Define relationships - Bottom to Top (Roots → Trunk → Branches)
    UC1 --> RC1
    UC2 --> RC1
    UC3 --> RC2
    UC4 --> RC3

    RC1 --> CP
    RC2 --> CP
    RC3 --> CP

    CP --> E1
    CP --> E2
    CP --> E3

    %% Festa Design System Colors
    style CP fill:#10B981,stroke:#059669,stroke-width:3px,color:#fff
    style RC1 fill:#F59E0B,stroke:#D97706,stroke-width:2px,color:#1F2937
    style RC2 fill:#F59E0B,stroke:#D97706,stroke-width:2px,color:#1F2937
    style RC3 fill:#F59E0B,stroke:#D97706,stroke-width:2px,color:#1F2937
    style UC1 fill:#72B043,stroke:#5A8F36,stroke-width:2px,color:#fff
    style UC2 fill:#72B043,stroke:#5A8F36,stroke-width:2px,color:#fff
    style UC3 fill:#72B043,stroke:#5A8F36,stroke-width:2px,color:#fff
    style UC4 fill:#72B043,stroke:#5A8F36,stroke-width:2px,color:#fff
    style E1 fill:#E12729,stroke:#B91C1C,stroke-width:2px,color:#fff
    style E2 fill:#E12729,stroke:#B91C1C,stroke-width:2px,color:#fff
    style E3 fill:#E12729,stroke:#B91C1C,stroke-width:2px,color:#fff

This structure isn't just aesthetic—it reflects causal logic. Roots (causes) feed the trunk (problem), which produces branches (effects). Understanding this flow helps you design interventions that target causes rather than just treating symptoms.

Key Components Explained

🌳 CORE PROBLEM (The Trunk)

The core problem is the central issue your project aims to address. Think of it as the focal point that connects everything else.

Characteristics of a well-defined core problem:

• Affects a specific population in a defined context (not "everyone everywhere")
• Observable and measurable—you can verify it exists through data or direct observation
• Urgent and significant—it matters to the affected community and stakeholders
• Written WITHOUT causes or solutions embedded in the statement

🌱 ROOT CAUSES (The Roots)

Root causes are the underlying reasons why the core problem exists. They answer the question: "Why does this problem persist?"

How to identify root causes:

• Go 2-3 levels deep by repeatedly asking "Why?"
• Consider multiple categories: economic, social, policy, geographic, cultural, institutional
• Tag each cause:
  • (E) Evidence-based: Supported by research, data, or credible sources
  • (A) Assumption: Needs validation through stakeholder engagement
• Look for interconnections: Causes often reinforce each other

🌿 EFFECTS (The Branches)

Effects are the consequences that result because the core problem persists. They demonstrate why solving this problem matters.

How to map effects:

• Consider different time horizons:
  • Immediate (0-6 months): What happens right now?
  • Medium-term (6 months-2 years): What develops over time?
  • Long-term (2+ years): What are lasting consequences?
• Consider different levels of impact:
  • Individual: Impact on affected people directly
  • Family/household: Ripple effects on families
  • Community: Broader social and economic consequences
  • System: Policy, institutional, or structural impacts
• Tag effects (E) or (A) just like causes

How the Tree Works Together

The power of the Problem Tree comes from seeing the complete system:

1. Causes feed the problem: Multiple root causes create and sustain the core problem
2. The problem produces effects: Consequences ripple out across time and levels
3. Effects justify intervention: The severity of consequences demonstrates urgency
4. Causes suggest intervention points: Where you intervene depends on which causes you can feasibly address

Common Mistakes to Avoid

❌ Mistake 1: Embedding Causes in the Core Problem

Wrong: "Youth are unemployed because they lack skills."
Right: "Youth aged 18-25 have limited access to employment" + separate cause "Skills-labor market mismatch (E)"

❌ Mistake 2: Confusing Causes with Symptoms

Symptom: "Youth feel discouraged"
Cause: "Limited visible success models and mentorship (A)"

❌ Mistake 3: Stopping at Surface-Level Causes

Too shallow: "No jobs available"
Go deeper: Why no jobs? → Economic decline → Why decline? → Industry shift + infrastructure gaps

❌ Mistake 4: Forgetting to Tag Evidence vs. Assumptions

Every cause and effect should have (E) or (A). If you're not sure, mark it (A) and plan to validate it with stakeholders.

Practice Makes Perfect

Understanding the framework conceptually is the first step. Next, you'll learn how to use AI-assisted research to accelerate the process of populating your Problem Tree with credible evidence—while still maintaining analytical rigor and preparing for community validation.